Kegiatan 3

Kegiatan 3

Seminar Pasar Modal Dengan Judul

Patterns In The Dark

Managing Investment Portofolio

Universitas Trisakti

Jakarta, 15th June 2012

Pembicara :Dr. Josep Ginting

WHY IN THE DARK ?

• The U.S. economy continues to recover, with business inventory growth of 7,7% compare to preview years. The unemployment rate grew better (from 9.6 percent to 8,5 percent over the course of 2011 as businesses added more workers to private payrolls, but unemployment remains unacceptably high).
•   The overall global recovery has gained considerable momentum, but has proceeded at very different speeds in emerging market economies and advanced economies. Global economic activity in 2010 and 2011 was stronger than anticipated, with aggregate global growth of around 5 percent according to the IMF.
• Indonesia economy grew to 6,4% in 2011 but APBN’s still having problem with negative spread.
• Indonesia Stocks Price grew above estimation and flying higher than fair value (DDM and DCF) and banks in the industry did not apply the same policy In managing asset and liabilities.    

US MULTI SPEEDS OF GROWTH WAS DOMINATED BY SEVERAL KEY DEVELOPMENTS

•            The first was heightened concern over sovereign debt, particularly in Europe, which resulted in rising interest rates and yield spreads in the affected European economies. During the crisis in Greece in April and May 2010, investors reduced their exposure, financial market volatility increased, and capital flowed into safe haven currencies and jurisdictions. Later, near the end of 2010, during the crisis in Ireland, contagion was less pronounced but sovereign debt yields increased in the European periphery countries, where they remain high. Economic conditions in the periphery pose considerable downside risks to the region, and beyond the region if not contained.
  
•            The second key development was the steady rise in commodity prices throughout the year, both oil and non-oil commodities, amid stronger global growth, adverse weather developments, and weak supply responses. The IMF estimates that prices increased 20 to 30 percent for oil and non-oil commodities in 2010. Higher prices for commodity inputs and food prices, coupled with reduced spare capacity in some economies, has put upward pressure on inflation across most emerging market economies, forcing authorities in those countries to tighten monetary policy.
  
•          Third, capital flows to emerging markets (EMs) were buoyant in 2010, especially in the latter part of the year. The fundamental driver of increased capital flows to emerging markets is the strengthened performance of these economies, especially relative to advanced economies, and the ensuing higher yields on EM investments, particularly in the context of continued easy monetary policies in the advanced economies.
  
•          Fourth, whereas the global recession and sharp decline in global trade had the effect of reducing global current account imbalances, the recovery has witnessed a modest widening of external imbalances once again. Recognizing the risk to future global growth posed by the partial reemergence of large external imbalances, G-20 Leaders agreed in Seoul to devise a framework to help identify imbalances in need of corrective and preventive actions.  
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